Dudes and Guys | 2025 NBA Draft
When the dozens and the dozens clamor for it, you gotta give the people what they want
Here we are, once again.
Last year, I told you how much I believed in Zach Edey, and he was an All-Rookie performer, and Terrence Shannon, who found himself in a nice microwave bench-scoring role for Minnesota; I also told you to fade Yves Missi and I think the important thing to remember is that nobody’s perfect, me and the guys who run NBA teams least of all.
Some reminders as we begin the arduous process of sorting Dudes from Guys ahead of this year’s NBA Draft:
I’m only covering the college fellas; while I believe Hugo Gonzalez emits a pungent whiff of Dude, I can’t pretend I watched a bunch of Real Madrid this year1.
I’m not interested in discussing the Dude-dom of likely top-10 picks; if someone is going that high, a team anticipates him becoming a Dude. Even if I don’t think some of those Guys are going to become Dudes (and inevitably, some won’t), they’re not my focus2.
That doesn’t mean some of these Dudes won't sneak into the lottery, or even into the top-10. Smart teams have made livings drafting Dudes when other people would draft Guys, even if that’s not the consensus choice. Optimally, what we’re looking for here is a player some people might raise eyebrows at for taking that high at the time that looks prescient in retrospect3.
I’m not bagging on people in great detail for fun; I’m putting my anticipated Guys list at the end. Feel free to debate in the comments or over a duel in the streets.
Without further ado, the Anticipated Dudes for the 2025 NBA Draft.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton Whoever takes him will get an absolute defensive monster who can and will shoot from deep and won’t get run clean off the court. Brook Lopez 2.0 only he doesn’t have to wait until Year 9 to start launching 4-5 threes per game? Sounds like a winner to me. And yet he’s going to go 10-12 spots lower than logic would dictate because he looks like the creation of a mad scientist who crossed Shawn Bradley and Jude Law.
Walter Clayton, Florida The size thing is concerning paired with good but not great ball-handling skills and a notable lack of the creation gene. He has to go somewhere with size in the backcourt or an amazing plan to mask his defensive deficiencies and ‘tweener size. But we just watched a seven-game war in the NBA Finals; one of the few prospects outside the top dogs who wouldn’t have wilted in that environment is Walter Clayton. I’ll gamble on “got that dawg in him” prevailing over his limitations.
Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga Speaking of the recently-completed Finals, the brother of Pacer Andrew Nembhard is being overlooked, literally. He’s 5-11 and slight and had a senior-year shooting bump that screams “aberration!” when placed against his other seasons. But he just takes care of the ball, makes the smart read 100 times out of 100 and never does anything he can’t. Teams have done worse at backup point guard.
Sion James, Duke I kept watching him and watching him this year and thinking “Who does this guy remind me of?” and it didn’t hit me until the Finals: he’s Lu Dort, The Sequel. Just a tough MFer who can knock down a three, defend the best player on the other team and should never be asked to create a shot for himself or others.
Egor Demin, BYU Concerns about his shooting are well-founded. He’s not good at it, at least not yet, and that’s a problem if you want him to play basketball for you! But a 6-9 uber athlete with impeccable court vision and a willingness to defend seems like something any smart team could make something out of. Knowing how this works, he’ll go to some rat outfit like Charlotte and they’ll try to make him a traditional 3-and-D wing and ruin him. Just know that if that happens, it’s not his fault; if he slips into the late teens or early 20s, somebody smart will have an intriguing project on their hands. Drew Hanlen this man, stat!
Chaz Lanier, Tennessee Dalton Knecht! Dalton Knecht? Dalton Knecht Dalton Knecht. Lanier isn’t as big and isn’t as polished but he can shoot like nobody’s business and someone who can knock down threes at a 40 percent clip and won’t just get walked down into the post should get a very long look.
Adou Thiero, Arkansas Twitchy athlete with notable defensive chops already who made strides on offense after following John Calipari from Kentucky to Arkansas. Maybe he learns to shoot from three and evolves into a true two-way terror; if not, teams sure do pay a lot of money these days to bouncy defensive monsters who can drive open lanes in properly-spaced schemes.
Danny Wolf, Michigan If the right team gets him and sticks him in the high post with instructions to facilitate, I think it’s the next step in the evolution of these giant ball-handling freaks. He doesn’t compare to Nikola Jokic (nobody does), but what if you can roll out a guy in a Jokic-like role for 15 minutes a night and run your whole second unit through his gifts in contrast to your regular scheme? The whiplash alone could ruin an opposing team for minutes at a time until there’s adjustment. This requires foresight; there’s every chance he gets drafted by the Wizards and in three years I go, “Man, what happened to Danny Wolf? Is he still in Belgium?” But the possibility of a smart team doing smart things with this guy is tantalizing.
Nique Clifford, Colorado State He just does SO MUCH. In the mix every single play. Tell him to crash glass and defend and he’ll be excellent at it; tell him to create shots for the second unit and you’ve got a potentially game-altering sixth man. Being a super-senior is only a knock until they start playing the games, at which point the 24-year-old Clifford will look like the steadying presence you can lean on when things get tough and the 19-year-old French kid who couldn’t get consistent run in the country’s highest league is suddenly the liability, upside be damned.
LJ Cryer, Houston We’ll just end this like we ended last year, with a beloved Cougar taking the last spot. I like guys who know how to play basketball. LJ Cryer knows how to hoop. Yes, he will chuck up the occasional “Oh LJ what the fuck are you doing buddy?” shot; he will also be one of the guys diving into the fifth row after a loose ball with under two minutes to play. You need those guys4.
Suspected Guys: Will Riley, Illinois; Tamar Bates, Missouri; Liam McNeeley, Connecticut; Eric Dixon, Villanova; RJ Luis, Saint John’s; Koby Brea, Kentucky; Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s; Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; Ace Bailey, Rutgers5
Not even the soccer team.
Likewise I’m going to attempt to not be too clever and pick a bunch of guys who go undrafted, although that will inevitably happen too. I STILL BELIEVE, AZUOLAS TUBELIS!
Edey, mostly mocked in the mid-teens for the run-up to last year’s draft, going ninth to Memphis is a good example of this.
[Insert contractually obligated TJ McConnell reference here]
I have rarely been so concerned about a potential top-five draft pick. Is it possible that Bailey doesn’t get enough blame for that debacle in Piscataway? He is talented; even the dumbest people alive could tell he’s extremely gifted on the hardwood. But he coasts, his handle is busted, he refused workouts and I’m getting BIG Michael Porter Jr. vibes. This doesn’t have to be viewed as a negative; as your third or fourth option, MPJ is cool to have! But as a top-three pick? Yikes!