Dudes and Guys | 2024 NBA Draft
Back by unpopular demand
Is it time? Oh yes, it’s time.
Last year, I told you how much I believed in Jaime Jacquez, and he was an All-Rookie performer; I also told you to fade Brandin Podziemski and GG Jackson, and they joined him, making my hit rate about as good as your average general manager when you think about it.
Some reminders as we begin the arduous process of sorting Dudes from Guys ahead of this year’s NBA Draft:
I’m only covering the college fellas; while I believe, even after injury, Nikola Topic has a whiff of Dude about him, I can’t pretend I watched a bunch of KK Crvena Zvezda this year.
I’m not interested in discussing the Dude-dom of likely top-10 picks; if someone is going that high, a team anticipates him becoming a Dude. Even if I don’t think some of those Guys are going to become Dudes (and inevitably, some won’t), they’re not my focus1.
That doesn’t mean some of these Dudes won't sneak into the lottery, or even into the top-10. Smart teams have made livings drafting Dudes when other people draft Guys, even if that’s not the consensus choice.
I’m not bagging on people in great detail for fun; I’m putting my anticipated Guys list at the end. Feel free to debate in the comments or over a duel in the streets.
Without further ado, the Anticipated Dudes for the 2024 NBA Draft.
Dalton Knecht, Tennessee He might go in the top-10; I’d argue he should go in the top five, based on last year. But he’s going to slip a few spots because too many see “tall, gawky white guy who can be a liability on defense” and not nearly enough see a smart, tough connective piece that also has range to 30 feet and the size to bang bodies with seasoned pros. If Oklahoma City gets him at 12, I will burn down an orphanage.
Devin Carter, Providence Told y’all. This draft is so janky I will register zero surprise if the Spurs take him at eight, and I will register zero surprise if he winds up going 17th. Everything I said last week—tough motherfucker, put the Friars on his back late in the season, not afraid to get physical, will go get the bucket when the bucket requires getting, busted jumper, probably miscast as a lead playmaker—is still true.
Terrence Shannon, Illinois If there is a better pure scorer in the draft, I am unaware of it. His success might depend on situation—I said similar things about Brice Sensabaugh last year and he spent most of his rookie season riding pine in Utah—but Shannon could step in and earn a Jamal Crawford-like role as second-unit scorer more or less instantly with the right team.
Jared McCain, Duke I don’t really know how you measure such things, but McCain was rated by ESPN.com to have the best intangibles of anyone in this draft class. Yes, he is a TikTok sensation; he is also, according to the people in the know, among the hardest-working players in this or any other class, and a dead-eye shooter already. Maybe he is a little undersized as a two and his ball-handling isn’t quite there yet to commit to him running point right out of the gate; I’m willing to bet he’ll put in the work to get there.
Zach Edey, Purdue Whatever concerns you might want to levy about his athleticism are more than understandable. My counter is that it’s very hard to teach human beings how to be 7-4. Another case where fit is everything; a team that just wants him to be the version of himself he already is will get someone with the potential to stick in the NBA for a decade-plus, but a team with the foresight to make him learn to shoot from deep and with athletes to help him in rotations defensively might have Brook Lopez 2.0 on their hands.
DaRon Holmes II, Dayton Eerily similar in profile—big, good athlete, bit stiff in the hips—to former Dayton big Obi Toppin, although Holmes already has a deeper bag of tricks offensively. He’s still developing, especially as a shooter, but already possesses a lot of the traits that keep a guy employed in the NBA for a while.
Tristen Newton, Connecticut Does nothing great but a great many things very well. Good size, good feel for the game, can impact any game without making a big dent in the scoring column. Wins a lot, which feels like it should matter? A lot of guys taken ahead of him will do less in the NBA.
Reece Beekman, Virginia An elite perimeter defender, a capable lead ball-handler, absolutely cannot and usually will not shoot from three. Part of that is the Virginia in him, and as bad a case of institutional rot as that might be, the optimist must believe Beekman is able to develop a three-point shot that at minimum must be accounted for by the opponent. Send him to Drew Hanlen for a few months if you make this pick.
Keshad Johnson, Arizona A tenacious defender and highlight-reel athlete who never could really shoot until last year at Arizona. Maybe he’s not much of a scorer, and also maybe that doesn’t matter? A legitimate threat to defend well 1-5 and smart enough to move the ball around to better scorers on the other end unless left open.
Jamal Shead, Houston This year’s captain of the ‘Got That Dawg In Him’ All-Stars. Just relentlessly on your ass every second of every game. Not going to wow you with his athleticism, not going to shoot anyone out of the building, but guaranteed to make life as miserable as possible for any opponent. When I meet God, the first thing I ask Her might be, “What would have happened in the 2024 NCAA Tournament if Jamal Shead doesn’t turn his ankle against Duke?”
Suspected Guys: Isaiah Collier, USC; KyShawn George, Miami; Cam Christie, Minnesota; Johnathan Mogbo, San Francisco (super bummed about that one); Yves Missi, Baylor; Kyle Filipowski, Duke; Ryan Dunn, Virginia; Adem Bona, UCLA; Judah Mintz, Syracuse; Tolu Smith, Mississippi State
Likewise I’m going to attempt to not be too clever and pick a bunch of guys who aren’t drafted this time around; wither indeed, Azuolas Tubelis?