Here’s a pretty solid maxim that has stood for nearly a quarter-century now:
If you’re going to win the title, you almost have to be top-25 in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
How confident are we on this one? Since Pomeroy began logging his data in 1999, exactly one team—2014 UConn—has won a title while being worse than 25th nationally in either AdjO or AdjD, and the Huskies propped up their middling offense with a top-10 defense*. Kevin Ollie cheated in the way cheating occurred back then, and in a way that now would barely register a blink, and he got what might be the most inexplicable title in 30 years out of it. Might be worth a consideration for a struggling high-major (cough) Vanderbilt (cough).
* - There’s a very fun team at present that should draw more comps to that UConn team, and it’s an Iowa State that’s even worse offensively and significantly better defensively than Ollie’s team was in 2014. TJ Oetzelberger is a warlock and should be respected as such.
There’s a month to go in this season and all livestock must be kept at least barn-adjacent until we get there, but teams are beginning to like they’re going to look in March. At present, there are eight teams in the top-25 in both AdjO and AdjD; now, we will rank them, taking into account including current league standing, remaining schedule, potential seeding according to The Bracketologist and whatever else feels relevant. Numbers nerds, unite! It’s time to go speculating.
BYU (17-6 overall, 5-5 Big 12; No. 12 KenPom, No. 17 EvanMiya, No. 8 NET)
Remaining Schedule: UCF, at Oklahoma State, Baylor, at Kansas State, at Kansas, TCU, at Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Current Lunardi Seed: 5
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 9th (119.2)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 24th (96.4)
The one that, on paper, makes the least amount of sense. Even taking into account that they’ve far outstripped their predicted league standing and have three very nice wins (San Diego State, Iowa State, Texas) any way you look at it, the Cougars still have to go to Lawrence, Ames and Manhattan and will need at least a few bounces in their favor to finish better than .500 in the Big 12.
The Cougars nonconference schedule was not overly robust, and they stacked a few wins against a few patsy’s along the way. BYU has dominated in Provo (12-2); given how the rigorous travel required to get there and playing at a near-mile high altitude, it’s no surprise. If there was an NCAA path through Albuquerque, Denver and Salt Lake City, then maybe. But the Cougars have put up a couple of clunkers nearer sea level (including last week’s throttling in Norman); the loss to Oklahoma was without Aly Khalifa, who has battled injury and illness throughout his first season at BYU to become a top-20 player in Miyakawa’s Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating nationally despite averaging less than 6.0 points per game, so integral is he to Mark Pope’s offense. But somebody has to be last on this list, and that’s the Cougars at the moment.