Watch, Monitor, Don't: January 27, 2023
Please talk to your children about Louisville-Notre Dame
The SEC and Big 12 take a slight break from conference play, but plenty of other leagues are beating up on one another this weekend.
Much of what else might take your attention away from college basketball is beginning to wind down. College football is over; we’re down to the short rows in the NFL. The NBA and NHL are hitting the midseason lull, international soccer is on the rebound and there’s no Olympics in 2023 to concern yourself with, should you care to. But still. It’s a lot. So much to watch, keep track of, gamble on (if that’s your thing), tweet about while you can. You’re but one person, with a phone and a tv and a laptop, maybe an iPad, perhaps another tv or two… my point is, you have a finite number of screens to devote to Division I hoops the next couple of days. Let me help you with your weekend viewing plans.
As always, the weekend starts at 7 p.m. ET on Friday; Iona and Siena, y’all oughta know better at this point but I’ll be catching the second half.
Must Watch (Times ET)
No. 10 Texas at No. 4 Tennessee, 6 p.m., Saturday (ESPN)
Some facts, which are indisputable:
Rick Barnes used to coach at Texas
Rick Barnes now coaches at Tennessee
Rick Barnes has made a career out of winning 2/3 of his games wherever he goes
Rick Barnes was relieved of command at Texas for missing the Sweet 16 in seven straight seasons (and also the season he had Kevin Durant on his team, IMO)
Rick Barnes’ Tennessee teams have failed to reach the Sweet 16 the last three seasons
Tennessee is not Texas; in many respects, it’s considerably more delusional about its place in the college athletics pecking order. That said, anybody who thinks Tennessee should fire Rick Barnes for anything aside from a program-defining scandal (Tennessee is familiar with those!) is an idiot.
Anyway. Zakai Ziegler and the litter of dogs inside him against Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter in the Texas backcourt would be an on-paper mismatch, but instead of playing games on paper, they play on the court and there Ziegler is the avatar for Tennessee basketball—tough, smart, physical and willing to storm the gates of hell with a glass of water to win.
Honorable mentions: Kansas-Kentucky (8 p.m., Saturday, ESPN); Michigan State-Purdue (12:15 p.m., Sunday, CBS); Drake-Belmont (3 p.m., Sunday, ESPN2)
Must Monitor (Times ET)
No. 13 Xavier at Creighton, 12:15 p.m., Saturday (CBS)
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Creighton a 73.7 percent chance to win this game. Preliminary lines are favoring the Blue Jays. Understanding how these things are true and Xavier is a top-15 program and Creighton is barely receiving votes involves a complete reckoning of just how screwed Creighton is if they don’t have Ryan Kalkbrenner.
I’ve beaten this drum since the Blue Jays lost to BYU, but Kalkbrenner might be the most important non-star for any team hoping to make a deep March run. The Kalkbrenner losing streak completely altered Creighton’s season, helping dole out losses to BYU, Arizona State and Marquette; if the Blue Jays take care of business with a healthy Kalkbrenner in those games, Creighton is 15-5 with four ranked losses to UConn, Xavier, Texas and Arizona (and also Nebraska, because sometimes things just happen. I’ve no regrets about my ill-considered hope for Nebraska) and a comfortable spot in the Top-25.
So anyway. Don’t be shocked if Creighton wins. But also don’t be shocked if they don’t. Because Xavier is legitimately great, and still smarting from a recentness to DePaul and has put the Big East in a stranglehold, leading by a game and owning the tie-breaker over Marquette. A season sweep of Creighton takes one of their biggest challengers off the board from a conference regular season title perspective. This probably falls under a Must Watch now that I’m thinking about it, but I felt pulled to spill some words on the Musketeers and Blue Jays. So there.
Honorable Mention: Iowa State-Missouri (2 p.m., Saturday, ESPN2); Arkansas-Baylor (4 p.m., Saturday, ESPN); Seattle-Stephen F. Austin (5:30 p.m., Saturday, ESPN+)
Must Avoid (Times ET)
Louisville at Notre Dame, 12 p.m., Saturday (ESPN2)
Why do I do this, week after week? Why do I single out Louisville for being the worst power conference basketball team of my lifetime, when Kenny Payne was given an impossible task and the Cardinals are genuinely doing their best and maybe we should just put a towel over this game like we might with a bird in a cage to help keep it calm?
Well, one, because it’s true and two, because it’s very funny. But if pressed on a third option, I would say it’s the schadenfreude of it all. Louisville will almost assuredly not win this game because Louisville has not won very many games. Notre Dame is extremely mid, but extremely mid should result in a comfortable victory against this version of the Cardinals.
Pat Forde had a piece on the state of Commonwealth basketball in general this week, focusing on the two flagship programs in Louisville and Lexington for much of his ire. The piece focused on how fed up both fanbases are, although Kentucky’s was mostly based on “Don’t you know who we are?” indignation, when Louisville gives off the “ex-boxing champ who gets his ass kicked in a bar fight and is thrown into a gutter, where it starts raining and where his ‘friends’ won’t pick him up” vibes.
Neither are, exactly, considered What You Want(TM) in the parlance.
Honorable Mention: Winthrop-Presbyterian (2 p.m., Saturday, ESPN3); Drexel-Elon (4 p.m., Saturday, FloHoops); Cal State Northridge-UC Irvine (9 p.m., Saturday, ESPN+)