The Selection Committee looked at the Midwest and decided to make most of it out of Texas and Iowa and honestly? Not mad at ya, Selection Committee.
You’ve got Houston, Texas and Texas A&M representing the Lone Star State, Iowa, Iowa State and Drake for the corn-inclined (and not a one playing in Des Moines, natch) and that’s fine. The committee decided to work smarter, not harder, and took the Midwest as an opportunity to do a little self-care for all involved. This gives us the opportunity to imagine a Texas-only Elite Eight with an opportunity to send a Texas representative to Houston for the Final Four—or, for the sickos, the outside chance at Iowa-Iowa State in the Elite Eight putting Fran McCaffrey’s stare game on the largest stage opposite TJ Otzelberger’s aversion to fun basketball.
(Please do the right thing, Texas schools. We don’t need that.)
A quick Midwest preview before the games begin this week.
Midwest Region
3 Favorites: Houston, blah blah blah, one of the greatest seasons in program history, Final Four in their backyard, etc., Jim Nantz is a Houston alum in his final season on the call, and so on. Heard it. It’s fine. Texas has kind of defied expectations already since they could have cratered in the wake of the Chris Beard firing; instead, they won the Big 12 Tournament and might have had a pretty decent argument for a one-seed. Indiana has the best two-man game in this region with Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino; ask Purdue how easy of an out they are.
2 Chances for Cinderella: Drake drew a reeling Miami team, has won 13 of its last 14, won all three of its Missouri Valley Tournament games by double figures and avenged that one loss by putting Bradley in a chokehold for 40 minutes in the title game. If Miami’s interior defense is lacking (more on that below), Drake has a mountain with a jumper named Darnell Brodie patrolling the paint who will feast. Kent State gets the other nod here because America needs to become acquainted with Sincere Carry and this is America’s best chance to make that acquaintance.
1 Dark Horse: At some point this year, Texas A&M went from being “The team with bad losses to Mu**ay State and Wofford” to “the team that dog-walked Auburn in its own building, beat Alabama and went 15-3 in a sneaky-tough SEC” and friend, if you go looking for a fight with this bunch after reading that, you are braver than I. The paid the Terriers to come in and hand them an L and then won 23 of the next 27. That’s a team that looked death in the face and asked for a bag of Skittles, because rainbows and ass-kickings are free.
X-Factor: Wendell Green Jr. can take over a game all by his lonesome and take out a team, like he did with a 24-point annihilation of Tennessee. He can also shoot Auburn out of any game, and has demonstrated this skill many, many times. He could average 35 the first weekend and send Houston home early; he could also shoot 2-for-14 in a 15-point loss to Iowa.
Coach On the Rise: In two seasons, Micah Shrewsbury (Penn State) has made himself over from “Matt Painter’s assistant” to “Guy who got Penn State to a Big 10 title game in his second year on the job and gave his old boss as much smoke as he could muster once he got there” and that’s how you get Georgetown to back up a Brinks truck full of money and a smaller Brinks truck full of promises to try and lure you to America’s most difficult big-time college basketball job and away from a school that only occasionally remembers it has a basketball team.
(Note: If you want to get a rise out of an Indiana person, tell them that Penn State has made two Big 10 Tournament title games since Indiana’s last visit.)
Coach on the Outs: Given all the success, I certainly don’t think of Fran McCaffrey (Iowa) as being on even remotely thin ice, but man… his whole thing seems exhausting. Pretty much everyone else here is either a venerable head coach entrenched in the job, an up-and-comer with an eye on the next thing, or Jim Larrañaga (is Jim Larrañaga, and thus both ubiquitous and undefinable).
Overrated: Taking in all factors, it has to be Miami. The U, even with Norchad Omier, staggers in with losses in two of their last four and barely escaped in one-possession wins against Pitt and Wake Forest. If they don’t have Omier—their lone true interior threat—Drake’s job gets a lot easier.
Overlooked: Lord. I guess we’re doing this.
So Iowa State is ranked ahead of both Miami and Indiana in KenPom, thanks to one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. On paper, they are a top-25 team with a real argument for a top-four seed line thanks to their work in the gauntlet that was 2023 Big 12 basketball.
The problem is Iowa State cannot be trusted to do the basketball outside the confines of Hilton Coliseum (or against Baylor) and the Selection Committee, killjoys that they are, have forced the Cyclones to both play somewhere else (Greensboro, North Carolina) against someone else (the winner between Mississippi State and Pitt). Rude as hell, if you ask me.
Prediction: The state of Texas wins big. Houston rolls to the Elite Eight with Marcus Sasser at full health and Jarace Walker rocketing up draft boards. Texas A&M dispatches the Longhorns in their highly-anticipated second-round matchup and then slip past Xavier to reach the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. The Cougars prove too tough to topple in the end thanks to their elite playmaking capabilities (see the Evan Miyakawa tweet for full details) and head back to Houston to sleep in their own beds during the Final Four.